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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Coach of the Year trophy follows a straightforward formula. It often serves as a form of apology. We regret we misjudged your team in our preseason forecasts.

In theory, it's a direct path: the coach who engineered the largest improvement is handed the award. In reality, it sparks an annual debate about expectations and whether we're actually rewarding superior coaching or simply the greatest upset.

However this year's race is fundamentally unique. The group of nominees is exceptionally talented. It has been the season of turnarounds. The league has been unpredictable, with reigning conference champions falling away and recent also-rans ascending together. During an typical season, Sean Payton leading the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the stone-cold favorite. Yet in such a turbulent and fun year, he's facing multiple other exceptional candidates.

Below is how the hypothetical vote could shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors love QBs. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you solve a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just fixed Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. Given a proper ecosystem, Williams has been afforded the opportunity to demonstrate his otherworldly talent. From midseason onward, the Chicago offense rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a brief surge – it's prolonged dominance. With Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly confident, far less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the gameplan rather than going rogue. It is an offense built entirely in the coach's vision: a physical ground attack, a steady dose of play-action passes and a creative aerial game that frees wide receiver receivers all over the field. Williams has capitalized. And when easy reads weren't there, he's been able to spin big plays out of nothing.

The coach arrived to Chicago with a specific offensive philosophy. Almost each decision – rebuilding the trenches, featuring the tight ends, turning the QB into a rhythm thrower – has paid off. This is rare for a rookie skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who walked into the building with the level of expectations Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the hottest name on the head coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a leader, there are no sure things. Somehow, Johnson has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not only to be a scheme wizard but the kind of culture builder that can breathe new life into an franchise.

During a ordinary year, he would be the overwhelming favorite. Yet this is not a normal year!

The area where his candidacy comes a bit into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears presently rank 25th in defensive success rate. They are living on takeaways, and turnovers are famously fickle. Coaches can focus on ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offense is real. He's ranked lower because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. If not for a couple breaks of the ball, the Bears would be two victories behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is in place for sustained success. However Johnson comes up just short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, 12-4

Coen is in a similar situation to Johnson. He's another rookie leader who has masterminded a rapid resurgence. During the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best all-around ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defense that now ranks number five in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more notably, Coen has mastered the intangibles stuff, which wasn't a certainty following his initial press conference introduction and some of his preseason moves.

Coen walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed their staff with the ideal coaching mix of youth and experience, Coen trusted first-timers. From the head coach on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That kind of approach is exciting on paper, but often collapses in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is learning a their job on the fly. Yet Coen has managed to bring the entire group and all elements into sync.

Following an early hot beginning, there was a chance that the campaign would go off the rails. A mid-year setback had the Jags wobbling again. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. Coen did not. Instead, he streamlined things. The offense stopped pursuing explosive plays and started seeking sustainable ones. Coen refocused the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and asked Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The results are clear. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. Coen gets the slightest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a talented team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year narrative has a pivotal moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB choice.

Parting ways from a veteran, bringing in a new quarterback and partnering him with an innovative play-caller could have ended the season in October. Rather, it shaped it. Through the mid point of the year, the new QB was an MVP front-runner. He has fallen away after that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the season, putting him just one place ahead of peers.

Still