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Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the presentation of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.

The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction

The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, political struggles are waged: positive announcements are released from various governments. Immense energy is expended on containing particular approaches. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "peace".

Nighttime Reality

As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from Russian territory, a ability provided through timely intelligence. From observation points, military aircraft that had been dispatched to counter approaching aerial threats streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by European allies.

Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: defensive missiles fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, presumably delivered by Western nations. Every firing shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: maybe the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from ruin and additional electricity failures.

Persistent Threats

Not long after, a heavy machine gun fired at a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly imported technology. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its destination.

Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: several casualties, damage and utility failures in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a reliance that European nations are clearly incapable to substitute in the short term.

Failed Diplomacy

The 28-point plan from American leadership sparked intense emotion, debate and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.

Every new initiative from American administration follows the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, no doubt, endure.

Strategic Calculations

It is tempting to accuse certain parties of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration functions according to a premise familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration believes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to abandon the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.

The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does nothing to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from believing that the situation will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the months ahead.

Divergent Views

Therefore, Moscow is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the outcome.

On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing people and territory but avoiding a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its benefit.

Present Conditions

Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: personal goals to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not shift toward homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.

These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.

Assessment and Future

It took a mere seven days to kill the 28 points of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.

While new proposals based on previous concepts are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, largely rely on continued Western support.