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Back in 2018, it took just a short phrase to energize the party's annual gathering and to show the party was becoming disillusioned with its then leader. Although not exactly stirring rhetoric, the words met with rapturous applause as delegates rose in an impromptu ovation.

As the commotion died down, the then-Brexit spokesman, remained at the lectern, blinking in surprise. He was unaccustomed to his addresses producing such a reaction. His statement was simply: "Nobody is ruling out remain as an option". Context, however, is key.

In that darkly divisive time of 2018, departing from the prepared script in this way was always going to be seen as issuing a challenge to the party leader, who sought to prioritize Brexit voters in working-class seats above the Europhile sentiments of his party. In just one speech, this seemingly cautious shadow Brexit secretary was transformed – albeit temporarily – into a risk-taker who championed the party's base against the leadership he would later replace.

The Evolution of Stance and Closed Issues

In the years since, the landscape has shifted, especially for Starmer himself. An early move upon assuming leadership from Corbyn in 2020 was declaring the Brexit issue had been settled by the previous year’s general election. During the most recent campaign, he consistently stressed manifesto “red line” commitments that ruled out re-entry into the European Union or its core structures.

Like his predecessor, his strategy has been to pursue Brexit-y voters in key seats, even if survey data suggests a significant number have passed away or shifted opinion.

Pressure Building on Europe

Yet, it’s now the prime minister’s turn to be an embattled party leader. While EU relations is no longer the boiling pot of British politics, the cap that has been kept firmly shut since Brexit is starting to loosen again.

Both Starmer and Rachel Reeves have ramped up their language about the devastation caused by Brexit has caused to the UK’s economy. This serves as an effective tool with which to beat the Reform UK leader, who seldom discusses his flagship policy was once his singular purpose and is still his sole political accomplishment.

Nevertheless, the scale of the damage, which by some estimates has resulted in an economy that is between 6% and 8% smaller than if it were still in the EU, dwarfs the micro-mitigation so far offered by ministers. Starmer’s so-called relationship reset agreed with Brussels last summer offers economic benefits quantified in fractions of a percent.

Cabinet Divergence & Bolder Ideas

Rachel Reeves is among those trying to overcome long-standing interior ministry opposition to a broader scheme designed to boost growth youth mobility scheme by which young people can travel between Britain and Europe for work or study.

David Lammy has pondered publicly about the “self-evident” benefits of being in an EU customs pact, as several Labour backbenchers, such as the head of the powerful finance committee, recently supported an opposition proposal on customs union membership.

Although the Europe minister, the minister in charge of EU policy, who is now attending every cabinet meeting, maintains the firm boundaries are still in place, there exist avenues to work around them. One idea involves announce the start of talks immediately on a much bolder deal, to be featured in the next manifesto, with implementation only if securing a new electoral mandate.

The Prime Minister's Fundamental Doubts

Yet, Starmer has lately been damping it all down on the idea cautioning that rejoining a European customs area would “unravel” the commercial agreements with America, which he regards as key accomplishments of his premiership.

It is understood that Starmer's doubts run even deeper, stemming from several key concerns.

1. First, he thinks any customs union agreement is now much harder as ministers are busily de-aligning from European rules in numerous sectors, including the environment.
2. Secondly, the exorbitant price demanded from Britain to join the EU’s new defence fund and the subsequent collapse of negotiations has led British officials that former EU partners are less interested in cutting special deals to the UK than in proving that Brexit does not work.
3. Thirdly, America's latest security doctrine, which has been welcomed by the Kremlin, is viewed by key advisors in Number 10 as grounds for Britain to keep its distance from the EU.

An Alarming Document and Strategic Calculations

This strange and concerning document asserts Europe is threatened by cultural extinction because of Muslim migration. It contains a single mention of the UK, found on a proposal that Donald Trump’s administration may interfere in British politics to encourage the growth of “patriotic” parties.

However, instead of concluding that this makes America an undependable ally, ministers is worried that aligning closer with Europe could upset the global balance by risking precarious American backing for Ukraine, Nato and much more besides.

Succession Chatter & The Ghost from the Past

This situation returns us to 2018. Starmer has always said his speech was not an attempt to become leader but merely an effort to preserve the “option” of remain being on the ballot paper. Indeed, in those days, Starmer still favoured a “bespoke customs union deal” similar to the one he now appears to be opposing.

Observers within the Prime Minister's office note that the Health Secretary, widely considered would stand in any leadership election, is part of a clutch of senior ministers signaling they desire greater ambition regarding the EU.

Staff for the Deputy Prime Minister, another probable runner in a contest to replace Starmer, maintain she won’t discuss her stance on a customs union because it would only “fuel unnecessary gossip”.

The Clear Risk and A Wise Reminder

The risk is clear. If Starmer rules out significant moves towards EU alignment, he cedes ground to occupy the space where most of the party's supporters reside.

It would be wise for Starmer to remember the effect that a short phrase had on his career seven years ago. There are options for a big offer on EU relations which the PM should not “rule out”; he should explore them himself, rather than letting rivals makes them his – or her – own.