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Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that divided the nation and caused turmoil, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is equipped.

That is the message from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Establishments Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and seismic public vote.

"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."

New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue

The team have analysed the political, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.

"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.

"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."

Constitutional Provision

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a referendum.

Absence of Substantive Discussion

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, said McBride.

"Many are for or against the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but very few politicians or advocates want to engage even with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"

Volume's Strategy

In the volume, neither author endorses unification or the current situation. Both composes two essays that strive for neutrality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.

Arguments range over flags and symbols, duties, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and stimulate discussion.

"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented the writer. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the concept that there might be valid points on either side."

Dual Referendums

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they favour unification but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.

"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.

Likelihood of Public Vote

The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"

Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified arguments, he stated. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and the other side will in the end lose but all factions has got something to acquire from the other's arguments."

Appeal for Broader Debate

Westminster must join the discussion, said the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."